Carolina Hurricanes at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Martin NecasGoals1
- Stefan NoesenAssists1
- Martin NecasPoints1
Jets- Nikolaj EhlersGoals1
- Mark ScheifeleAssists2
- Nikolaj EhlersPoints2
Scoring summary
- P219:09Martin Necas Goal (7) Wrap-around, assists: Stefan Noesen (8), Jalen Chatfield (5)1–2
- P211:39Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (19), Kyle Connor (11)0–2
- P116:58Kyle Connor Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (7), Mark Scheifele (18)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:58Kyle Connor Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (7), Mark Scheifele (18)CAR 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 54% → 70% +16WPG 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P211:39Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (19), Kyle Connor (11)CAR 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 73% → 87% +14WPG 73% → 87%+14 pts
- P219:09Martin Necas Goal (7) Wrap-around, assists: Stefan Noesen (8), Jalen Chatfield (5)CAR 1 – 2 WPG · CAR 9% → 24% +15CAR 9% → 24%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 55%
- Fair odds
- WPG -122
- CAR +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 3.3 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −18 | −10 | CAR: Antti Raanta: team allows 0.45 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · WPG: Laurent Brossoit: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +36 Elo | WPG 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.212th of 31 |
| 1st of 3158.2% | Shot share | 52.7%8th of 31 |
| 31st of 3187.4% | Save percentage | 90.7%14th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 15th of 316–6 | Road vs home | 6–614th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.