Philadelphia Flyers at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Sean CouturierGoals1
- Sean CouturierAssists1
- Sean CouturierPoints2
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals1
- Filip ForsbergAssists1
- Filip ForsbergPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:18Filip Forsberg Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (17), Ryan O'Reilly (11)2–3
- P36:49Travis Sanheim Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (8), Sean Couturier (14)2–2
- P219:35Sean Couturier Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (8), Cam Atkinson (8)1–2
- P23:05Michael McCarron Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Schenn (1), Cole Smith (7)0–2
- P19:42Gustav Nyquist Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Alexandre Carrier (8), Filip Forsberg (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:42Gustav Nyquist Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Alexandre Carrier (8), Filip Forsberg (18)PHI 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 55% → 70% +15NSH 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P23:05Michael McCarron Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Schenn (1), Cole Smith (7)PHI 0 – 2 NSH · NSH 71% → 85% +13NSH 71% → 85%+13 pts
- P219:35Sean Couturier Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (8), Cam Atkinson (8)PHI 1 – 2 NSH · PHI 9% → 24% +15PHI 9% → 24%+15 pts
- P36:49Travis Sanheim Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (8), Sean Couturier (14)PHI 2 – 2 NSH · PHI 20% → 48% +28PHI 20% → 48%+28 pts
- OT0:18Filip Forsberg Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (17), Ryan O'Reilly (11)PHI 2 – 3 NSH · NSH 51% → 91% +40NSH 51% → 91%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 55%
- Fair odds
- NSH -122
- PHI +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.0 – 3.3 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +8 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +35 Elo | NSH 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.116th of 31 |
| 5th of 3153.7% | Shot share | 49.5%19th of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 91.1%10th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 31 |
| 6th of 318–5 | Road vs home | 9–58th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.