Nashville Predators at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Colton SissonsGoals2
- Roman JosiAssists2
- Colton SissonsPoints2
Canadiens- Jake EvansGoals1
- Jake EvansPoints1
Scoring summary
- P219:25Jake Evans Goal (2) Backhand, assists: none2–1
- P27:03Colton Sissons Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Dante Fabbro (5), Roman Josi (16)2–0
- P111:41Colton Sissons Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Filip Forsberg (17), Roman Josi (15)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:41Colton Sissons Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Filip Forsberg (17), Roman Josi (15)NSH 1 – 0 MTL · NSH 47% → 63% +16NSH 47% → 63%+16 pts
- P27:03Colton Sissons Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Dante Fabbro (5), Roman Josi (16)NSH 2 – 0 MTL · NSH 66% → 82% +16NSH 66% → 82%+16 pts
- P219:25Jake Evans Goal (2) Backhand, assists: noneNSH 2 – 1 MTL · MTL 12% → 29% +17MTL 12% → 29%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 49%
- Fair odds
- MTL -117
- NSH +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | MTL and NSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −14 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · MTL: Jake Allen: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +6 Elo | NSH 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 31 |
| 11th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.528th of 31 |
| 16th of 31+0.1 | Margin | −0.727th of 31 |
| 19th of 3149.6% | Shot share | 45.0%29th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 90.4%18th of 31 |
| 1st of 317–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 20th of 315–7 | Road vs home | 6–925th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.