Nashville Predators at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals2
- William NylanderAssists2
- Auston MatthewsPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:29Noah Gregor Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Calle Jarnkrok (8)0–4
- P316:49Auston Matthews Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (19), John Tavares (16)0–3
- P217:57Auston Matthews Goal (17) Backhand, assists: William Nylander (18), Morgan Rielly (15)0–2
- P214:15David Kampf Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Timmins (2)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P214:15David Kampf Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Timmins (2)NSH 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 53% → 74% +21TOR 53% → 74%+21 pts
- P217:57Auston Matthews Goal (17) Backhand, assists: William Nylander (18), Morgan Rielly (15)NSH 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 75% → 90% +15TOR 75% → 90%+15 pts
- P316:49Auston Matthews Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (19), John Tavares (16)NSH 0 – 3 TOR · TOR >99% → >99% +0TOR >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P318:29Noah Gregor Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Calle Jarnkrok (8)NSH 0 – 4 TOR · TOR >99% → 100% +0TOR >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 55%
- Fair odds
- TOR -122
- NSH +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −1 | NSH: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +34 Elo | TOR 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.58th of 31 |
| 12th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.318th of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.2 | Margin | +0.115th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.2% | Shot share | 49.1%20th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 90.3%17th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 16th of 315–6 | Road vs home | 7–511th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NSH 1–0 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.