Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Mitch MarnerGoals1
- Jake McCabeAssists2
- TJ BrodiePoints2
Senators- Jacob Bernard-DockerGoals1
- Jake SandersonAssists1
- Claude GirouxPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:07Claude Giroux Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (9)4–3
- P313:03William Nylander Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (4), TJ Brodie (5)4–2
- P35:14Jacob Bernard-Docker Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (10), Tim Stützle (20)3–2
- P33:35Calle Jarnkrok Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (12), Nicholas Robertson (4)3–1
- P217:40David Kampf Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (15), Jake McCabe (3)2–1
- P21:42Mitchell Marner Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (14), TJ Brodie (4)1–1
- P119:34Josh Norris Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:34Josh Norris Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (8)TOR 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 54% → 71% +17OTT 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P21:42Mitchell Marner Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (14), TJ Brodie (4)TOR 1 – 1 OTT · TOR 29% → 46% +17TOR 29% → 46%+17 pts
- P217:40David Kampf Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (15), Jake McCabe (3)TOR 2 – 1 OTT · TOR 47% → 70% +23TOR 47% → 70%+23 pts
- P33:35Calle Jarnkrok Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (12), Nicholas Robertson (4)TOR 3 – 1 OTT · TOR 74% → 91% +17TOR 74% → 91%+17 pts
- P35:14Jacob Bernard-Docker Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (10), Tim Stützle (20)TOR 3 – 2 OTT · OTT 8% → 25% +17OTT 8% → 25%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 56%
- Fair odds
- OTT -124
- TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.3 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +12 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.30 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +44 Elo | OTT 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.316th of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.1 | Margin | +0.312th of 31 |
| 17th of 3149.7% | Shot share | 51.7%10th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 89.5%22nd of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313–5 | Road vs home | 6–718th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 0–1 OTT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.