Tampa Bay Lightning at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Alex Barre-BouletGoals1
- Brandon HagelAssists1
- Alex Barre-BouletPoints1
Predators- Ryan McDonaghGoals1
- Ryan McDonaghAssists1
- Ryan McDonaghPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:13Yakov Trenin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (6)1–5
- P36:11Roman Josi Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Smith (6)1–4
- P24:32Ryan McDonagh Goal (1) Backhand, assists: none1–3
- P22:37Filip Forsberg Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (14), Gustav Nyquist (15)1–2
- P117:14Juuso Parssinen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Tomasino (8), Ryan McDonagh (8)1–1
- P113:32Alex Barré-Boulet Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (14), Anthony Cirelli (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:32Alex Barré-Boulet Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (14), Anthony Cirelli (7)TB 1 – 0 NSH · TB 42% → 58% +16TB 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P117:14Juuso Parssinen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Tomasino (8), Ryan McDonagh (8)TB 1 – 1 NSH · NSH 41% → 58% +17NSH 41% → 58%+17 pts
- P22:37Filip Forsberg Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (14), Gustav Nyquist (15)TB 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 58% → 74% +17NSH 58% → 74%+17 pts
- P24:32Ryan McDonagh Goal (1) Backhand, assists: noneTB 1 – 3 NSH · NSH 75% → 87% +13NSH 75% → 87%+13 pts
- P36:11Roman Josi Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Smith (6)TB 1 – 4 NSH · NSH 95% → >99% +4NSH 95% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 61%
- Fair odds
- NSH -148
- TB +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 2.9 – 3.4 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TB on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +2 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +78 Elo | NSH 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 59.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.115th of 31 |
| 19th of 3149.5% | Shot share | 50.3%15th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.3% | Save percentage | 90.5%14th of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 26th of 314–8 | Road vs home | 8–59th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–0 NSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.