Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyAssists1
- Sidney CrosbyPoints1
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Victor HedmanAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:07Jake Guentzel Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (12)1–3
- P217:04Tanner Jeannot Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Michael Eyssimont (5)0–3
- P28:31Nikita Kucherov Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (22), Steven Stamkos (16)0–2
- P15:56Anthony Cirelli Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Victor Hedman (21), Nikita Kucherov (27)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:56Anthony Cirelli Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Victor Hedman (21), Nikita Kucherov (27)PIT 0 – 1 TB · TB 54% → 69% +15TB 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P28:31Nikita Kucherov Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (22), Steven Stamkos (16)PIT 0 – 2 TB · TB 72% → 86% +14TB 72% → 86%+14 pts
- P217:04Tanner Jeannot Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Michael Eyssimont (5)PIT 0 – 3 TB · TB 89% → 97% +7TB 89% → 97%+7 pts
- P319:07Jake Guentzel Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (12)PIT 1 – 3 TB · PIT 0% → <1% +0PIT 0% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Fair odds
- TB -121
- PIT +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −2 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +23 Elo | TB 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 31 |
| 9th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −0.219th of 31 |
| 12th of 3151.4% | Shot share | 49.4%20th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3192.3% | Save percentage | 89.1%24th of 31 |
| 27th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 14th of 316–6 | Road vs home | 7–613th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–0 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.