Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Johnathan KovacevicAssists1
- Nick SuzukiPoints1
Sabres- Jeff SkinnerGoals1
- Connor CliftonAssists1
- Jeff SkinnerPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Juraj Slafkovsky Goal Backhand3–2
- SO0:00Jesse Ylönen Goal Snap Shot3–2
- SO0:00Owen Power Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Cole Caufield Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Victor Olofsson Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- P36:36Kyle Okposo Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Clifton (4)2–2
- P31:06Jeff Skinner Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (8)2–1
- P213:13Nick Suzuki Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (14), Sean Monahan (8)2–0
- P212:59Jayden Struble Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Johnathan Kovacevic (1)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:59Jayden Struble Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Johnathan Kovacevic (1)MTL 1 – 0 BUF · MTL 46% → 67% +21MTL 46% → 67%+21 pts
- P213:13Nick Suzuki Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (14), Sean Monahan (8)MTL 2 – 0 BUF · MTL 68% → 84% +17MTL 68% → 84%+17 pts
- P31:06Jeff Skinner Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (8)MTL 2 – 1 BUF · BUF 11% → 28% +17BUF 11% → 28%+17 pts
- P36:36Kyle Okposo Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Clifton (4)MTL 2 – 2 BUF · BUF 24% → 53% +29BUF 24% → 53%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 57%
- Fair odds
- BUF -124
- MTL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.0 – 3.3 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | −3 | MTL: Cayden Primeau: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BUF: Devon Levi: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +49 Elo | BUF 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 2.925th of 31 |
| 29th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.419th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.8 | Margin | −0.524th of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.3% | Shot share | 49.6%17th of 31 |
| 20th of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 89.1%27th of 31 |
| 23rd of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Road vs home | 5–723rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MTL 1–0 BUF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.