Detroit Red Wings at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Dylan LarkinGoals2
- Michael RasmussenAssists1
- Dylan LarkinPoints2
Sabres- Jeff SkinnerGoals1
- Jeff SkinnerAssists1
- Jeff SkinnerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:14Dylan Larkin Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (6)5–3
- P311:37Jeff Skinner Goal (11) Backhand, assists: none4–3
- P38:20Casey Mittelstadt Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (9), JJ Peterka (9)4–2
- P218:57Rasmus Dahlin Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (7), Dylan Cozens (8)4–1
- P213:55Michael Rasmussen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Petry (7), Shayne Gostisbehere (14)4–0
- P25:43Moritz Seider Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Robby Fabbri (3), Alex DeBrincat (11)3–0
- P18:25Robby Fabbri Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (6), David Perron (6)2–0
- P13:40Dylan Larkin Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:40Dylan Larkin Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (12)DET 1 – 0 BUF · DET 48% → 62% +15DET 48% → 62%+15 pts
- P18:25Robby Fabbri Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (6), David Perron (6)DET 2 – 0 BUF · DET 63% → 77% +14DET 63% → 77%+14 pts
- P25:43Moritz Seider Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Robby Fabbri (3), Alex DeBrincat (11)DET 3 – 0 BUF · DET 82% → 92% +10DET 82% → 92%+10 pts
- P38:20Casey Mittelstadt Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (9), JJ Peterka (9)DET 4 – 2 BUF · BUF <1% → 5% +4BUF <1% → 5%+4 pts
- P311:37Jeff Skinner Goal (11) Backhand, assists: noneDET 4 – 3 BUF · BUF 3% → 17% +14BUF 3% → 17%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 43%
- Fair odds
- BUF -111
- DET +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +30 | −23 | DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.75 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · BUF: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.57 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +52 Elo | DET 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 52.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 31 |
| 14th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.420th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.8 | Margin | −0.626th of 31 |
| 17th of 3149.9% | Shot share | 49.3%20th of 31 |
| 13th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 88.9%27th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 8th of 315–4 | Road vs home | 5–620th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.