Detroit Red Wings at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Jake WalmanGoals1
- Moritz SeiderAssists2
- Jake WalmanPoints2
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists1
- Nick SuzukiPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:54Jake Walman Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (14), Alex DeBrincat (10)5–4
- P316:01Gustav Lindstrom Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (3), Jake Evans (6)4–4
- P34:12Nick Suzuki Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (13)4–3
- P24:54Alex DeBrincat Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (13), Daniel Sprong (10)4–2
- P24:07Joel Armia Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–2
- P119:53Justin Barron Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (13)3–1
- P119:20Daniel Sprong Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (12)3–0
- P111:44Christian Fischer Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Michael Rasmussen (5)2–0
- P17:21Joe Veleno Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (11), Jake Walman (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:07Joel Armia Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDET 3 – 2 MTL · MTL 19% → 35% +15MTL 19% → 35%+15 pts
- P24:54Alex DeBrincat Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (13), Daniel Sprong (10)DET 4 – 2 MTL · DET 65% → 81% +15DET 65% → 81%+15 pts
- P34:12Nick Suzuki Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (13)DET 4 – 3 MTL · MTL 9% → 26% +17MTL 9% → 26%+17 pts
- P316:01Gustav Lindstrom Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (3), Jake Evans (6)DET 4 – 4 MTL · MTL 8% → 51% +43MTL 8% → 51%+43 pts
- OT0:54Jake Walman Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (14), Alex DeBrincat (10)DET 5 – 4 MTL · DET 49% → 91% +43DET 49% → 91%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 51%
- Fair odds
- MTL -118
- DET +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −14 | −11 | DET: Ville Husso: team allows 0.35 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · MTL: Jake Allen: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +5 Elo | MTL 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 31 |
| 13th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.625th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.8 | Margin | −0.828th of 31 |
| 17th of 3149.7% | Shot share | 45.5%29th of 31 |
| 12th of 3191.0% | Save percentage | 90.2%18th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 15th of 314–4 | Road vs home | 5–723rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–1 MTL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.