Buffalo Sabres at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Victor OlofssonGoals1
- Connor CliftonAssists1
- Victor OlofssonPoints1
Bruins- Brad MarchandGoals1
- Hampus LindholmAssists1
- Brad MarchandPoints1
Scoring summary
- P311:16Victor Olofsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P217:35Brad Marchand Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Hampus Lindholm (6)2–1
- P216:57Tage Thompson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Clifton (3)2–0
- P21:18JJ Peterka Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (9)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:18JJ Peterka Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (9)BUF 1 – 0 BOS · BUF 45% → 63% +18BUF 45% → 63%+18 pts
- P216:57Tage Thompson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Clifton (3)BUF 2 – 0 BOS · BUF 69% → 86% +17BUF 69% → 86%+17 pts
- P217:35Brad Marchand Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Hampus Lindholm (6)BUF 2 – 1 BOS · BOS 14% → 31% +17BOS 14% → 31%+17 pts
- P311:16Victor Olofsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBUF 3 – 1 BOS · BUF 81% → 97% +15BUF 81% → 97%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 62%
- Fair odds
- BOS -130
- BUF +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.9 – 3.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | −7 | BUF: Devon Levi: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +87 Elo | BOS 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.413th of 31 |
| 21st of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.53rd of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.6 | Margin | +0.94th of 31 |
| 19th of 3149.5% | Shot share | 50.1%16th of 31 |
| 28th of 3188.7% | Save percentage | 92.5%2nd of 31 |
| 27th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 25th of 315–9 | Road vs home | 9–21st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BUF 0–1 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.