Seattle Kraken at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Vince DunnGoals1
- Vince DunnAssists1
- Vince DunnPoints2
Canadiens- Josh AndersonGoals1
- Josh AndersonAssists1
- Josh AndersonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:28Josh Anderson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–4
- P34:49Vince Dunn Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (11), Matty Beniers (9)2–3
- P214:05Jared McCann Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (17), Adam Larsson (6)1–3
- P26:58Sean Monahan Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (14), Cole Caufield (13)0–3
- P23:12Tanner Pearson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (5), Christian Dvorak (4)0–2
- P14:03Sean Monahan Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (4), Jake Evans (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:03Sean Monahan Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (4), Jake Evans (7)SEA 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 56% → 70% +14MTL 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P23:12Tanner Pearson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (5), Christian Dvorak (4)SEA 0 – 2 MTL · MTL 72% → 85% +13MTL 72% → 85%+13 pts
- P26:58Sean Monahan Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (14), Cole Caufield (13)SEA 0 – 3 MTL · MTL 86% → 94% +8MTL 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P214:05Jared McCann Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (17), Adam Larsson (6)SEA 1 – 3 MTL · SEA 4% → 11% +7SEA 4% → 11%+7 pts
- P34:49Vince Dunn Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (11), Matty Beniers (9)SEA 2 – 3 MTL · SEA 6% → 21% +15SEA 6% → 21%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 59%
- Fair odds
- MTL -126
- SEA +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.0 – 3.3 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +8 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +61 Elo | MTL 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 2.925th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.729th of 31 |
| 29th of 31−0.8 | Margin | −0.828th of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.8% | Shot share | 45.6%28th of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.0% | Save percentage | 89.9%19th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 31 |
| 27th of 314–9 | Road vs home | 5–825th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.