Los Angeles Kings at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Quinton ByfieldGoals2
- Anze KopitarAssists3
- Quinton ByfieldPoints3
CanadiensScoring summary
- P37:58Trevor Moore Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (17), Drew Doughty (7)4–0
- P218:15Quinton Byfield Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (14), Kevin Fiala (16)3–0
- P117:46Quinton Byfield Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (16), Anze Kopitar (13)2–0
- P18:13Drew Doughty Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (13), Anze Kopitar (12)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:13Drew Doughty Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (13), Anze Kopitar (12)LA 1 – 0 MTL · LA 47% → 62% +15LA 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P117:46Quinton Byfield Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (16), Anze Kopitar (13)LA 2 – 0 MTL · LA 64% → 79% +15LA 64% → 79%+15 pts
- P218:15Quinton Byfield Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (14), Kevin Fiala (16)LA 3 – 0 MTL · LA 88% → 96% +8LA 88% → 96%+8 pts
- P37:58Trevor Moore Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (17), Drew Doughty (7)LA 4 – 0 MTL · LA >99% → >99% +1LA >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 47%
- Fair odds
- MTL -115
- LA +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.0 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +21 | +10 | LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.53 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +20 Elo | LA 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.7 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 1st of 312.4 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+1.3 | Margin | −0.727th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3155.4% | Shot share | 45.6%29th of 31 |
| 4th of 3191.7% | Save percentage | 90.1%19th of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 31 |
| 1st of 318–0 | Road vs home | 6–822nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LA 1–0 MTL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.