Nashville Predators at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Roman JosiGoals1
- Roman JosiAssists2
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints3
Hurricanes- Stefan NoesenGoals1
- Stefan NoesenAssists1
- Stefan NoesenPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:33Filip Forsberg Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (19), Ryan O'Reilly (13)6–5
- P310:57Jeremy Lauzon Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (11), Juuso Parssinen (3)5–5
- P210:18Tyson Barrie Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Smith (8), Philip Tomasino (9)4–5
- P29:51Martin Necas Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: none3–5
- P29:26Ryan O'Reilly Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (19), Roman Josi (18)3–4
- P25:09Sebastian Aho Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (11), Stefan Noesen (10)2–4
- P24:50Jalen Chatfield Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Michael Bunting (13), Jordan Martinook (7)2–3
- P23:47Roman Josi Goal (7) Wrap-around, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (12), Gustav Nyquist (16)2–2
- P112:13Tony DeAngelo Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (12)1–2
- P110:23Stefan Noesen Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Jack Drury (7), Martin Necas (14)1–1
- P15:18Juuso Parssinen Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Tommy Novak (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:13Tony DeAngelo Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (12)NSH 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 51% → 66% +16CAR 51% → 66%+16 pts
- P23:47Roman Josi Goal (7) Wrap-around, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (12), Gustav Nyquist (16)NSH 2 – 2 CAR · NSH 32% → 50% +18NSH 32% → 50%+18 pts
- P24:50Jalen Chatfield Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Michael Bunting (13), Jordan Martinook (7)NSH 2 – 3 CAR · CAR 50% → 69% +18CAR 50% → 69%+18 pts
- P310:57Jeremy Lauzon Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (11), Juuso Parssinen (3)NSH 5 – 5 CAR · NSH 17% → 50% +33NSH 17% → 50%+33 pts
- OT0:33Filip Forsberg Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (19), Ryan O'Reilly (13)NSH 6 – 5 CAR · NSH 50% → 91% +41NSH 50% → 91%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 50%
- Fair odds
- CAR -102
- NSH +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.1 – 3.1 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −15 | NSH: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CAR: Antti Raanta: team allows 0.37 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH 0 Elo | NSH 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 50.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 31 |
| 11th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.214th of 31 |
| 15th of 31+0.1 | Margin | +0.117th of 31 |
| 19th of 3149.0% | Shot share | 57.5%1st of 31 |
| 9th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 87.9%31st of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 17th of 316–7 | Road vs home | 8–36th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.