Carolina Hurricanes at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jordan StaalGoals1
- Jaccob SlavinAssists1
- Jordan StaalPoints1
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals3
- Connor McDavidAssists3
- Zach HymanPoints3
Scoring summary
- P39:35Zach Hyman Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (24)1–6
- P37:05Jordan Staal Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jaccob Slavin (12)1–5
- P22:49Warren Foegele Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Janmark (4)0–5
- P114:03Zach Hyman Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (14), Connor McDavid (23)0–4
- P15:46Zach Hyman Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Janmark (3), Evan Bouchard (19)0–3
- P10:41Mattias Ekholm Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (22), Evan Bouchard (18)0–2
- P10:28Ryan McLeod Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (6), Mattias Janmark (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:28Ryan McLeod Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (6), Mattias Janmark (2)CAR 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 54% → 68% +14EDM 54% → 68%+14 pts
- P10:41Mattias Ekholm Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (22), Evan Bouchard (18)CAR 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 68% → 80% +12EDM 68% → 80%+12 pts
- P15:46Zach Hyman Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Janmark (3), Evan Bouchard (19)CAR 0 – 3 EDM · EDM 81% → 90% +9EDM 81% → 90%+9 pts
- P114:03Zach Hyman Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (14), Connor McDavid (23)CAR 0 – 4 EDM · EDM 91% → 96% +5EDM 91% → 96%+5 pts
- P22:49Warren Foegele Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Janmark (4)CAR 0 – 5 EDM · EDM 97% → >99% +2EDM 97% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 52%
- Fair odds
- EDM -119
- CAR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 3.3 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | +6 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.33 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +11 Elo | EDM 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.414th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.2 | Margin | −0.220th of 31 |
| 1st of 3158.6% | Shot share | 54.0%5th of 31 |
| 31st of 3187.6% | Save percentage | 88.0%30th of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 17th of 316–7 | Road vs home | 4–521st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CAR 1–0 EDM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.