Carolina Hurricanes at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Stefan NoesenGoals1
- Jack DruryAssists1
- Stefan NoesenPoints1
Flames- Blake ColemanGoals1
- Blake ColemanAssists1
- Blake ColemanPoints2
Scoring summary
- P311:44Blake Coleman Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (7)2–3
- P37:03Connor Zary Goal (5) Poke, assists: Adam Ruzicka (5), Nazem Kadri (12)2–2
- P35:42Rasmus Andersson Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Blake Coleman (8), MacKenzie Weegar (9)2–1
- P18:49Michael Bunting Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Dmitry Orlov (9), Martin Necas (12)2–0
- P12:10Stefan Noesen Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Jaccob Slavin (13), Jack Drury (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:10Stefan Noesen Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Jaccob Slavin (13), Jack Drury (4)CAR 1 – 0 CGY · CAR 42% → 56% +15CAR 42% → 56%+15 pts
- P18:49Michael Bunting Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Dmitry Orlov (9), Martin Necas (12)CAR 2 – 0 CGY · CAR 58% → 72% +15CAR 58% → 72%+15 pts
- P35:42Rasmus Andersson Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Blake Coleman (8), MacKenzie Weegar (9)CAR 2 – 1 CGY · CGY 8% → 26% +18CGY 8% → 26%+18 pts
- P37:03Connor Zary Goal (5) Poke, assists: Adam Ruzicka (5), Nazem Kadri (12)CAR 2 – 2 CGY · CGY 25% → 54% +29CGY 25% → 54%+29 pts
- P311:44Blake Coleman Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (7)CAR 2 – 3 CGY · CGY 53% → 86% +32CGY 53% → 86%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 56%
- Fair odds
- CGY -142
- CAR +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.9 – 3.4 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +3 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +42 Elo | CGY 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 58.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 31 |
| 17th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.524th of 31 |
| 16th of 310.0 | Margin | −0.625th of 31 |
| 1st of 3158.3% | Shot share | 52.6%7th of 31 |
| 31st of 3187.3% | Save percentage | 88.9%28th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 20th of 316–8 | Road vs home | 5–619th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.