Minnesota Wild at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Matt BoldyGoals2
- Matt BoldyAssists1
- Matt BoldyPoints3
Flames- Mikael BacklundGoals1
- MacKenzie WeegarAssists1
- Mikael BacklundPoints1
Scoring summary
- P36:49Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (8)5–2
- P31:37Connor Zary Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Ilya Solovyov (1), Nazem Kadri (11)4–2
- P213:58Matt Boldy Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (15), Jared Spurgeon (4)4–1
- P26:51Mikael Backlund Goal (6) Deflected, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (8), Rasmus Andersson (10)3–1
- P21:30Matt Boldy Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–0
- P20:45Kirill Kaprizov Goal (8) Batted, assists: Marco Rossi (7), Mats Zuccarello (21)2–0
- P11:26Marcus Foligno Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:26Marcus Foligno Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (8)MIN 1 – 0 CGY · MIN 45% → 60% +15MIN 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P20:45Kirill Kaprizov Goal (8) Batted, assists: Marco Rossi (7), Mats Zuccarello (21)MIN 2 – 0 CGY · MIN 64% → 79% +15MIN 64% → 79%+15 pts
- P21:30Matt Boldy Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMIN 3 – 0 CGY · MIN 79% → 90% +11MIN 79% → 90%+11 pts
- P26:51Mikael Backlund Goal (6) Deflected, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (8), Rasmus Andersson (10)MIN 3 – 1 CGY · CGY 8% → 19% +10CGY 8% → 19%+10 pts
- P213:58Matt Boldy Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (15), Jared Spurgeon (4)MIN 4 – 1 CGY · MIN 85% → 94% +10MIN 85% → 94%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 54%
- Fair odds
- CGY -121
- MIN +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.0 – 3.2 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +2 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +29 Elo | CGY 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 31 |
| 29th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.419th of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.5 | Margin | −0.523rd of 31 |
| 13th of 3150.9% | Shot share | 52.7%7th of 31 |
| 27th of 3188.9% | Save percentage | 89.2%24th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 28th of 313–7 | Road vs home | 5–515th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.