Vancouver Canucks at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Elias PetterssonGoals1
- Filip HronekAssists2
- Sam LaffertyPoints2
Flames- Mikael BacklundGoals1
- MacKenzie WeegarAssists1
- Mikael BacklundPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:06Elias Lindholm Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (7), Rasmus Andersson (9)4–3
- P318:40Elias Pettersson Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Nikita Zadorov (6), Tyler Myers (10)4–2
- P315:39Elias Lindholm Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (6), Chris Tanev (6)3–2
- P219:32Ilya Mikheyev Goal (8) Batted, assists: Elias Pettersson (22), Sam Lafferty (6)3–1
- P112:18Mikael Backlund Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Adam Ruzicka (4), MacKenzie Weegar (7)2–1
- P18:38Sam Lafferty Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (6), Filip Hronek (23)2–0
- P12:03Quinn Hughes Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (11), Filip Hronek (22)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:03Quinn Hughes Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (11), Filip Hronek (22)VAN 1 – 0 CGY · VAN 46% → 61% +15VAN 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P18:38Sam Lafferty Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (6), Filip Hronek (23)VAN 2 – 0 CGY · VAN 62% → 76% +14VAN 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P112:18Mikael Backlund Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Adam Ruzicka (4), MacKenzie Weegar (7)VAN 2 – 1 CGY · CGY 23% → 37% +14CGY 23% → 37%+14 pts
- P219:32Ilya Mikheyev Goal (8) Batted, assists: Elias Pettersson (22), Sam Lafferty (6)VAN 3 – 1 CGY · VAN 71% → 88% +17VAN 71% → 88%+17 pts
- P315:39Elias Lindholm Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (6), Chris Tanev (6)VAN 3 – 2 CGY · CGY <1% → 9% +9CGY <1% → 9%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 50%
- Fair odds
- CGY -117
- VAN +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.2 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +1 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +3 Elo | VAN 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 53.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.8 | Goals scored | 3.023rd of 31 |
| 4th of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 3.420th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+1.3 | Margin | −0.422nd of 31 |
| 21st of 3149.0% | Shot share | 52.7%8th of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.9% | Save percentage | 89.3%22nd of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 13th of 317–6 | Road vs home | 5–413th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VAN 0–1 CGY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.