Carolina Hurricanes at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Sebastian AhoGoals2
- Brady SkjeiAssists2
- Sebastian AhoPoints3
Senators- Josh NorrisGoals1
- Claude GirouxAssists1
- Josh NorrisPoints1
Scoring summary
- P217:19Sebastian Aho Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (2), Brady Skjei (13)4–1
- P213:39Seth Jarvis Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (15), Dmitry Orlov (11)3–1
- P212:18Sebastian Aho Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (7), Teuvo Teravainen (8)2–1
- P118:49Martin Necas Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (12), Jack Drury (6)1–1
- P17:27Josh Norris Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Erik Brannstrom (3), Claude Giroux (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:27Josh Norris Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Erik Brannstrom (3), Claude Giroux (14)CAR 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 55% → 69% +15OTT 55% → 69%+15 pts
- P118:49Martin Necas Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (12), Jack Drury (6)CAR 1 – 1 OTT · CAR 29% → 46% +17CAR 29% → 46%+17 pts
- P212:18Sebastian Aho Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (7), Teuvo Teravainen (8)CAR 2 – 1 OTT · CAR 47% → 68% +21CAR 47% → 68%+21 pts
- P213:39Seth Jarvis Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (15), Dmitry Orlov (11)CAR 3 – 1 OTT · CAR 68% → 85% +17CAR 68% → 85%+17 pts
- P217:19Sebastian Aho Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (2), Brady Skjei (13)CAR 4 – 1 OTT · CAR 87% → 96% +9CAR 87% → 96%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 54%
- Fair odds
- OTT -121
- CAR +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 3.3 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −4 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +28 Elo | OTT 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.215th of 31 |
| 17th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.411th of 31 |
| 1st of 3157.9% | Shot share | 52.5%6th of 31 |
| 31st of 3187.2% | Save percentage | 89.6%22nd of 31 |
| 22nd of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 22nd of 316–10 | Road vs home | 6–822nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CAR 1–0 OTT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.