Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Claude GirouxGoals1
- Jakob ChychrunAssists2
- Claude GirouxPoints2
Red Wings- Patrick KaneGoals1
- Alex LyonAssists1
- Patrick KanePoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:35Jake Sanderson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–1
- P218:56Tim Stützle Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (11), Artem Zub (6)4–1
- P28:36Dominik Kubalik Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (12)3–1
- P23:36Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (10), Claude Giroux (13)2–1
- P114:49Patrick Kane Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (12), Alex Lyon (1)1–1
- P11:57Claude Giroux Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (9), Vladimir Tarasenko (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:57Claude Giroux Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (9), Vladimir Tarasenko (13)OTT 1 – 0 DET · OTT 43% → 58% +15OTT 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P114:49Patrick Kane Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (12), Alex Lyon (1)OTT 1 – 1 DET · DET 39% → 56% +17DET 39% → 56%+17 pts
- P23:36Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (10), Claude Giroux (13)OTT 2 – 1 DET · OTT 45% → 63% +18OTT 45% → 63%+18 pts
- P28:36Dominik Kubalik Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (12)OTT 3 – 1 DET · OTT 65% → 81% +16OTT 65% → 81%+16 pts
- P218:56Tim Stützle Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (11), Artem Zub (6)OTT 4 – 1 DET · OTT 87% → 96% +9OTT 87% → 96%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 63%
- Fair odds
- DET -131
- OTT +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.9 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +26 | OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.65 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +93 Elo | DET 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.81st of 31 |
| 16th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.113th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.2 | Margin | +0.85th of 31 |
| 6th of 3152.4% | Shot share | 49.5%19th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.3% | Save percentage | 90.5%16th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 20th of 312–3 | Road vs home | 8–510th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OTT 1–1 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.