San Jose Sharks at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Nico SturmGoals2
- Mikael GranlundAssists2
- Mikael GranlundPoints3
Red Wings- Michael RasmussenGoals2
- Ben ChiarotAssists2
- Michael RasmussenPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:37Mikael Granlund Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (4)6–5
- P318:31Tomas Hertl Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (13), Alexander Barabanov (2)5–5
- P313:20Dylan Larkin Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (13), Robby Fabbri (5)4–5
- P219:37Nico Sturm Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Justin Bailey (3), Kevin Labanc (4)4–4
- P215:52Nico Sturm Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic (1), Kyle Burroughs (3)3–4
- P214:46Fabian Zetterlund Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jan Rutta (4), Mikael Granlund (12)2–4
- P214:08Tomas Hertl Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: William Eklund (7), Jan Rutta (3)1–4
- P213:40Lucas Raymond Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Chiarot (7), Robby Fabbri (4)0–4
- P213:04Michael Rasmussen Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Ben Chiarot (6), Andrew Copp (7)0–3
- P212:51Michael Rasmussen Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Daniel Sprong (11)0–2
- P29:05Klim Kostin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:05Klim Kostin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSJ 0 – 1 DET · DET 55% → 73% +19DET 55% → 73%+19 pts
- P219:37Nico Sturm Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Justin Bailey (3), Kevin Labanc (4)SJ 4 – 4 DET · SJ 24% → 46% +23SJ 24% → 46%+23 pts
- P313:20Dylan Larkin Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (13), Robby Fabbri (5)SJ 4 – 5 DET · DET 52% → 87% +35DET 52% → 87%+35 pts
- P318:31Tomas Hertl Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (13), Alexander Barabanov (2)SJ 5 – 5 DET · SJ <1% → 49% +48SJ <1% → 49%+48 pts
- OT0:37Mikael Granlund Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (4)SJ 6 – 5 DET · SJ 48% → 90% +42SJ 48% → 90%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 62%
- Fair odds
- DET -130
- SJ +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −17 | SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · DET: Ville Husso: team allows 0.42 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +86 Elo | DET 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 312.0 | Goals scored | 3.82nd of 31 |
| 31st of 314.1 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−2.1 | Margin | +0.85th of 31 |
| 31st of 3140.1% | Shot share | 49.7%18th of 31 |
| 21st of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 90.8%13th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 31st of 312–11 | Road vs home | 8–46th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.