Carolina Hurricanes at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Stefan NoesenGoals1
- Jack DruryAssists1
- Stefan NoesenPoints1
Canucks- Elias PetterssonGoals1
- Elias PetterssonAssists2
- Elias PetterssonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P33:29Elias Pettersson Goal (11) Wrap-around, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (7), Filip Hronek (24)3–4
- P32:10Stefan Noesen Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Jack Drury (5), Brent Burns (8)3–3
- P219:04Brady Skjei Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (10), Michael Bunting (11)2–3
- P213:46J.T. Miller Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (14), Nils Hoglander (4)1–3
- P27:23Jordan Martinook Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Fast (4), Jaccob Slavin (14)1–2
- P26:54Ilya Mikheyev Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Elias Pettersson (26), Sam Lafferty (7)0–2
- P16:17Sam Lafferty Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (25), Ian Cole (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:17Sam Lafferty Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (25), Ian Cole (4)CAR 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 56% → 70% +14VAN 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P213:46J.T. Miller Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (14), Nils Hoglander (4)CAR 1 – 3 VAN · VAN 74% → 89% +14VAN 74% → 89%+14 pts
- P219:04Brady Skjei Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (10), Michael Bunting (11)CAR 2 – 3 VAN · CAR 9% → 24% +15CAR 9% → 24%+15 pts
- P32:10Stefan Noesen Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Jack Drury (5), Brent Burns (8)CAR 3 – 3 VAN · CAR 23% → 47% +24CAR 23% → 47%+24 pts
- P33:29Elias Pettersson Goal (11) Wrap-around, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (7), Filip Hronek (24)CAR 3 – 4 VAN · VAN 53% → 78% +25VAN 53% → 78%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 60%
- Fair odds
- VAN -127
- CAR +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.9 – 3.3 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −14 | 0 | CAR: Antti Raanta: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +71 Elo | VAN 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.81st of 31 |
| 19th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.65th of 31 |
| 18th of 310.0 | Margin | +1.22nd of 31 |
| 1st of 3158.1% | Shot share | 48.8%21st of 31 |
| 31st of 3187.3% | Save percentage | 91.6%5th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 21st of 316–9 | Road vs home | 9–45th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.