New Jersey Devils at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Jesper BrattGoals2
- Jack HughesAssists2
- Jack HughesPoints3
Canucks- J.T. MillerGoals1
- J.T. MillerAssists2
- J.T. MillerPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:26Jesper Bratt Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (4), Kevin Bahl (5)6–5
- P316:34Nils Hoglander Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (25), Quinn Hughes (27)5–5
- P313:58Sam Lafferty Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (26), Elias Pettersson (24)5–4
- P37:02Brock Boeser Goal (18) Backhand, assists: J.T. Miller (24)5–3
- P219:26Luke Hughes Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (23)5–2
- P119:40Dakota Joshua Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (6), Teddy Blueger (2)4–2
- P118:42Michael McLeod Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan Bastian (2), Curtis Lazar (4)4–1
- P117:06Jack Hughes Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Kevin Bahl (4)3–1
- P19:51Erik Haula Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (22)2–1
- P18:24J.T. Miller Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (12), Elias Pettersson (23)1–1
- P13:40Jesper Bratt Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonas Siegenthaler (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:24J.T. Miller Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (12), Elias Pettersson (23)NJ 1 – 1 VAN · VAN 40% → 56% +16VAN 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P19:51Erik Haula Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (22)NJ 2 – 1 VAN · NJ 45% → 60% +16NJ 45% → 60%+16 pts
- P117:06Jack Hughes Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Kevin Bahl (4)NJ 3 – 1 VAN · NJ 62% → 77% +15NJ 62% → 77%+15 pts
- P316:34Nils Hoglander Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (25), Quinn Hughes (27)NJ 5 – 5 VAN · VAN 7% → 51% +45VAN 7% → 51%+45 pts
- P319:26Jesper Bratt Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (4), Kevin Bahl (5)NJ 6 – 5 VAN · NJ 49% → >99% +51NJ 49% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 60%
- Fair odds
- VAN -127
- NJ +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.9 – 3.3 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +5 | NJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +67 Elo | VAN 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.81st of 31 |
| 30th of 313.8 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +1.32nd of 31 |
| 6th of 3153.0% | Shot share | 49.0%21st of 31 |
| 29th of 3188.3% | Save percentage | 91.8%5th of 31 |
| 22nd of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 5th of 316–4 | Road vs home | 8–36th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.