Minnesota Wild at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild
Canucks- Teddy BluegerGoals1
- Conor GarlandAssists1
- Teddy BluegerPoints1
Scoring summary
- P32:05Teddy Blueger Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (7), Dakota Joshua (4)0–2
- P118:05Nils Hoglander Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (13), Tyler Myers (11)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:05Nils Hoglander Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (13), Tyler Myers (11)MIN 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 54% → 71% +16VAN 54% → 71%+16 pts
- P32:05Teddy Blueger Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (7), Dakota Joshua (4)MIN 0 – 2 VAN · VAN 77% → 92% +15VAN 77% → 92%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 55%
- Fair odds
- VAN -122
- MIN +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.0 – 3.3 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −22 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · VAN: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.55 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +32 Elo | VAN 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.91st of 31 |
| 28th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.3 | Margin | +1.22nd of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.8% | Shot share | 49.1%21st of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.0% | Save percentage | 91.3%8th of 31 |
| 22nd of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 31 |
| 25th of 314–7 | Road vs home | 8–46th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.