Carolina Hurricanes at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jordan StaalGoals1
- Stefan NoesenAssists1
- Jordan StaalPoints1
Red Wings- Michael RasmussenGoals1
- Jonatan BerggrenAssists1
- Michael RasmussenPoints1
Scoring summary
- P211:49Jordan Staal Goal (4) Poke, assists: Jesper Fast (5), Brett Pesce (3)2–1
- P25:20Michael Rasmussen Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (9), Jonatan Berggren (2)1–1
- P14:48Jack Drury Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Stefan Noesen (9), Martin Necas (13)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:48Jack Drury Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Stefan Noesen (9), Martin Necas (13)CAR 1 – 0 DET · CAR 46% → 61% +15CAR 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P25:20Michael Rasmussen Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (9), Jonatan Berggren (2)CAR 1 – 1 DET · DET 35% → 53% +19DET 35% → 53%+19 pts
- P211:49Jordan Staal Goal (4) Poke, assists: Jesper Fast (5), Brett Pesce (3)CAR 2 – 1 DET · CAR 47% → 68% +21CAR 47% → 68%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 51%
- Fair odds
- DET -119
- CAR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 3.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −22 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Ville Husso: team allows 0.55 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +9 Elo | DET 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.82nd of 31 |
| 15th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.318th of 31 |
| 17th of 310.0 | Margin | +0.56th of 31 |
| 1st of 3157.5% | Shot share | 49.1%19th of 31 |
| 31st of 3187.6% | Save percentage | 90.1%19th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 21st of 317–10 | Road vs home | 8–611th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.