Detroit Red Wings at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Michael RasmussenGoals1
- Joe VelenoAssists2
- Michael RasmussenPoints2
Blues- Kevin HayesGoals2
- Nick LeddyAssists1
- Kevin HayesPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:21Michael Rasmussen Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Joe Veleno (5)6–4
- P36:38Robby Fabbri Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Lucas Raymond (14), Andrew Copp (8)5–4
- P30:48Lucas Raymond Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Joe Veleno (4), Patrick Kane (1)4–4
- P216:53Marco Scandella Goal (1) Backhand, assists: none3–4
- P29:47Moritz Seider Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (7)3–3
- P22:11Kevin Hayes Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–3
- P21:40Kevin Hayes Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Nick Leddy (7), Colton Parayko (5)2–2
- P115:31Jonatan Berggren Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jeff Petry (8), Daniel Sprong (12)2–1
- P113:33Jake Walman Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P15:56Brandon Saad Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (12), Kasperi Kapanen (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:40Kevin Hayes Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Nick Leddy (7), Colton Parayko (5)DET 2 – 2 STL · STL 39% → 58% +18STL 39% → 58%+18 pts
- P29:47Moritz Seider Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (7)DET 3 – 3 STL · DET 25% → 43% +19DET 25% → 43%+19 pts
- P216:53Marco Scandella Goal (1) Backhand, assists: noneDET 3 – 4 STL · STL 56% → 77% +21STL 56% → 77%+21 pts
- P30:48Lucas Raymond Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Joe Veleno (4), Patrick Kane (1)DET 4 – 4 STL · DET 22% → 45% +23DET 22% → 45%+23 pts
- P36:38Robby Fabbri Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Lucas Raymond (14), Andrew Copp (8)DET 5 – 4 STL · DET 46% → 75% +29DET 46% → 75%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 60%
- Fair odds
- STL -146
- DET +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.9 – 3.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −24 | −2 | DET: Ville Husso: team allows 0.59 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +70 Elo | STL 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 59.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −0.323rd of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.2% | Shot share | 47.5%25th of 31 |
| 19th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 91.2%10th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 31 |
| 12th of 316–5 | Road vs home | 6–38th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.