Detroit Red Wings at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Daniel SprongGoals1
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists2
- Shayne GostisbeherePoints2
Stars- Miro HeiskanenGoals2
- Sam SteelAssists2
- Miro HeiskanenPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:18Miro Heiskanen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Steel (5)3–6
- P313:51Joe Pavelski Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Roope Hintz (14), Miro Heiskanen (16)3–5
- P313:21Joe Veleno Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (13), Shayne Gostisbehere (16)3–4
- P213:52Jonatan Berggren Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (15), Olli Maatta (5)2–4
- P213:30Matt Duchene Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Joel Hanley (1), Tyler Seguin (10)1–4
- P211:16Jason Robertson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (8), Roope Hintz (13)1–3
- P119:59Esa Lindell Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Steel (4), Jani Hakanpää (5)1–2
- P113:35Miro Heiskanen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (17), Jamie Benn (15)1–1
- P15:20Daniel Sprong Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Robby Fabbri (6), Christian Fischer (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:20Daniel Sprong Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Robby Fabbri (6), Christian Fischer (5)DET 1 – 0 DAL · DET 46% → 61% +15DET 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P113:35Miro Heiskanen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (17), Jamie Benn (15)DET 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 38% → 54% +16DAL 38% → 54%+16 pts
- P119:59Esa Lindell Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Steel (4), Jani Hakanpää (5)DET 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 54% → 71% +17DAL 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P211:16Jason Robertson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (8), Roope Hintz (13)DET 1 – 3 DAL · DAL 73% → 87% +14DAL 73% → 87%+14 pts
- P313:21Joe Veleno Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (13), Shayne Gostisbehere (16)DET 3 – 4 DAL · DET 1% → 13% +12DET 1% → 13%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 53%
- Fair odds
- DAL -120
- DET +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 3.2 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −6 | DET: James Reimer: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +22 Elo | DAL 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 31 |
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.113th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.311th of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.4% | Shot share | 48.5%23rd of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 90.5%15th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Road vs home | 5–619th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.