Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Mark StoneGoals1
- Mark StoneAssists1
- Mark StonePoints2
Stars- Evgenii DadonovGoals1
- Jamie BennAssists1
- Evgenii DadonovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P39:15Paul Cotter Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Brayden McNabb (9)6–1
- P32:11Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: William Karlsson (14), Paul Cotter (6)5–1
- P215:01Nicolas Roy Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (16)4–1
- P114:58Mark Stone Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (7), Jack Eichel (19)3–1
- P110:07Evgenii Dadonov Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (14), Jani Hakanpää (4)2–1
- P15:36Zach Whitecloud Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: William Carrier (2), Nicolas Roy (7)2–0
- P12:24Chandler Stephenson Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Brett Howden (3), Zach Whitecloud (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:24Chandler Stephenson Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Brett Howden (3), Zach Whitecloud (2)VGK 1 – 0 DAL · VGK 45% → 60% +15VGK 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P15:36Zach Whitecloud Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: William Carrier (2), Nicolas Roy (7)VGK 2 – 0 DAL · VGK 61% → 74% +14VGK 61% → 74%+14 pts
- P110:07Evgenii Dadonov Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (14), Jani Hakanpää (4)VGK 2 – 1 DAL · DAL 24% → 38% +14DAL 24% → 38%+14 pts
- P114:58Mark Stone Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (7), Jack Eichel (19)VGK 3 – 1 DAL · VGK 63% → 77% +15VGK 63% → 77%+15 pts
- P215:01Nicolas Roy Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (16)VGK 4 – 1 DAL · VGK 85% → 95% +9VGK 85% → 95%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 53%
- Fair odds
- DAL -121
- VGK +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −1 | VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +24 Elo | DAL 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.4 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+1.0 | Margin | +0.58th of 31 |
| 9th of 3152.2% | Shot share | 48.7%22nd of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.6% | Save percentage | 91.0%11th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 31 |
| 9th of 318–6 | Road vs home | 5–516th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VGK 2–0 DAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.