Washington Capitals at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- T.J. OshieGoals1
- Alex OvechkinAssists1
- T.J. OshiePoints1
Predators- Philip TomasinoGoals1
- Michael McCarronAssists1
- Colton SissonsPoints1
Scoring summary
- P33:41Yakov Trenin Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Alexandre Carrier (9), Michael McCarron (3)1–3
- P213:26Philip Tomasino Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Cole Smith (9)1–2
- P25:16T.J. Oshie Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (5), Alex Ovechkin (12)1–1
- P15:03Colton Sissons Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (20), Filip Forsberg (20)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:03Colton Sissons Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (20), Filip Forsberg (20)WSH 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 51% → 66% +15NSH 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P25:16T.J. Oshie Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (5), Alex Ovechkin (12)WSH 1 – 1 NSH · WSH 31% → 49% +18WSH 31% → 49%+18 pts
- P213:26Philip Tomasino Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Cole Smith (9)WSH 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 51% → 71% +21NSH 51% → 71%+21 pts
- P33:41Yakov Trenin Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Alexandre Carrier (9), Michael McCarron (3)WSH 1 – 3 NSH · NSH 76% → 92% +16NSH 76% → 92%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 52%
- Fair odds
- NSH -104
- WSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.1 – 3.1 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +10 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +13 Elo | NSH 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 51.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 31 |
| 8th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 31 |
| 19th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.213th of 31 |
| 26th of 3147.2% | Shot share | 49.0%19th of 31 |
| 6th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 91.0%11th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 9th of 316–5 | Road vs home | 10–57th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.