Florida Panthers at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Aleksander BarkovGoals1
- Sam ReinhartAssists4
- Sam ReinhartPoints4
Blue Jackets- Egor ChinakhovGoals1
- Erik GudbransonAssists1
- Egor ChinakhovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:59Eetu Luostarinen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (18), Sam Reinhart (20)5–2
- P318:05Matthew Tkachuk Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Niko Mikkola (8)4–2
- P316:11Dmitri Voronkov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrik Laine (3), Zach Werenski (20)3–2
- P313:13Aleksander Barkov Goal (10) Poke, assists: Sam Bennett (3), Sam Reinhart (19)3–1
- P17:28Carter Verhaeghe Goal (13) Deflected, assists: Sam Reinhart (18), Gustav Forsling (6)2–1
- P17:06Yegor Chinakhov Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (8), Erik Gudbranson (8)1–1
- P11:02Gustav Forsling Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (17), Sam Reinhart (17)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:02Gustav Forsling Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (17), Sam Reinhart (17)FLA 1 – 0 CBJ · FLA 46% → 60% +15FLA 46% → 60%+15 pts
- P17:06Yegor Chinakhov Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (8), Erik Gudbranson (8)FLA 1 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 39% → 54% +15CBJ 39% → 54%+15 pts
- P17:28Carter Verhaeghe Goal (13) Deflected, assists: Sam Reinhart (18), Gustav Forsling (6)FLA 2 – 1 CBJ · FLA 46% → 61% +15FLA 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P313:13Aleksander Barkov Goal (10) Poke, assists: Sam Bennett (3), Sam Reinhart (19)FLA 3 – 1 CBJ · FLA 85% → 98% +13FLA 85% → 98%+13 pts
- P316:11Dmitri Voronkov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrik Laine (3), Zach Werenski (20)FLA 3 – 2 CBJ · CBJ <1% → 8% +8CBJ <1% → 8%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 51%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -118
- FLA +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +14 | FLA: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.35 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +6 Elo | CBJ 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 31 |
| 4th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.526th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.5 | Margin | −0.524th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3155.0% | Shot share | 46.3%27th of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 90.6%15th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 13th of 317–6 | Road vs home | 7–817th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
FLA 1–0 CBJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.