Pittsburgh Penguins at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Reilly SmithGoals1
- Valtteri PuustinenAssists1
- Reilly SmithPoints1
Panthers- Oliver Ekman-LarssonGoals1
- Anton LundellAssists2
- Anton LundellPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:33Aleksander Barkov Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (16), Aaron Ekblad (4)1–3
- P36:10Eetu Luostarinen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (15), Anton Lundell (10)1–2
- P217:04Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (7) Poke, assists: Anton Lundell (9), Carter Verhaeghe (10)1–1
- P28:05Reilly Smith Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Evgeni Malkin (12), Valtteri Puustinen (1)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:05Reilly Smith Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Evgeni Malkin (12), Valtteri Puustinen (1)PIT 1 – 0 FLA · PIT 46% → 65% +20PIT 46% → 65%+20 pts
- P217:04Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (7) Poke, assists: Anton Lundell (9), Carter Verhaeghe (10)PIT 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 31% → 53% +23FLA 31% → 53%+23 pts
- P36:10Eetu Luostarinen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (15), Anton Lundell (10)PIT 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 53% → 80% +27FLA 53% → 80%+27 pts
- P319:33Aleksander Barkov Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (16), Aaron Ekblad (4)PIT 1 – 3 FLA · FLA >99% → 100% +0FLA >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 58%
- Fair odds
- FLA -125
- PIT +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +7 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +56 Elo | FLA 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.119th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 2.65th of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.49th of 31 |
| 13th of 3151.3% | Shot share | 55.0%3rd of 31 |
| 3rd of 3192.2% | Save percentage | 91.2%10th of 31 |
| 28th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 16th of 316–7 | Road vs home | 8–47th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.