New York Islanders at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Anders LeeGoals1
- Cal ClutterbuckAssists1
- Anders LeePoints1
Capitals- Hendrix LapierreGoals1
- Hendrix LapierreAssists1
- Hendrix LapierrePoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:41Dylan Strome Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (13), John Carlson (15)2–3
- P312:02Anders Lee Goal (9) Backhand, assists: none2–2
- P213:12Joel Edmundson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (5), Hendrix Lapierre (3)1–2
- P21:03Hudson Fasching Goal (2) Wrap-around, assists: Cal Clutterbuck (7)1–1
- P19:56Hendrix Lapierre Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:56Hendrix Lapierre Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (11)NYI 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 58% → 73% +15WSH 58% → 73%+15 pts
- P21:03Hudson Fasching Goal (2) Wrap-around, assists: Cal Clutterbuck (7)NYI 1 – 1 WSH · NYI 26% → 43% +16NYI 26% → 43%+16 pts
- P213:12Joel Edmundson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (5), Hendrix Lapierre (3)NYI 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 56% → 76% +20WSH 56% → 76%+20 pts
- P312:02Anders Lee Goal (9) Backhand, assists: noneNYI 2 – 2 WSH · NYI 14% → 47% +33NYI 14% → 47%+33 pts
- OT1:41Dylan Strome Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (13), John Carlson (15)NYI 2 – 3 WSH · WSH 52% → 95% +42WSH 52% → 95%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 59%
- Fair odds
- WSH -145
- NYI +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.9 – 3.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NYI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −1 | NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +63 Elo | WSH 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 59.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 31 |
| 20th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 2.78th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.2 | Margin | −0.120th of 31 |
| 30th of 3145.2% | Shot share | 47.1%26th of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 91.5%6th of 31 |
| 1st of 317–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 17th of 316–7 | Road vs home | 8–612th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYI 1–1 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.