Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals1
- William NylanderAssists2
- John TavaresPoints2
Islanders- Kyle PalmieriGoals1
- Noah DobsonAssists3
- Noah DobsonPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT0:46Bo Horvat Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (20), Noah Dobson (22)3–4
- P319:53Morgan Rielly Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (17), William Nylander (21)3–3
- P27:43John Tavares Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Conor Timmins (3), Jake McCabe (5)2–3
- P21:10Kyle Palmieri Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (10), Noah Dobson (21)1–3
- P118:33Casey Cizikas Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Cal Clutterbuck (5), Hudson Fasching (3)1–2
- P19:20Brock Nelson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (9), Noah Dobson (20)1–1
- P15:50Auston Matthews Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (17), William Nylander (20)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:50Auston Matthews Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (17), William Nylander (20)TOR 1 – 0 NYI · TOR 46% → 61% +15TOR 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P19:20Brock Nelson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (9), Noah Dobson (20)TOR 1 – 1 NYI · NYI 38% → 54% +16NYI 38% → 54%+16 pts
- P118:33Casey Cizikas Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Cal Clutterbuck (5), Hudson Fasching (3)TOR 1 – 2 NYI · NYI 53% → 70% +17NYI 53% → 70%+17 pts
- P319:53Morgan Rielly Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (17), William Nylander (21)TOR 3 – 3 NYI · TOR 0% → 50% +50TOR 0% → 50%+50 pts
- OT0:46Bo Horvat Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (20), Noah Dobson (22)TOR 3 – 4 NYI · NYI 51% → 92% +41NYI 51% → 92%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 50%
- Fair odds
- NYI -118
- TOR +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.2 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −8 | TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +2 Elo | NYI 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.421st of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.221st of 31 |
| 17th of 3149.7% | Shot share | 44.8%30th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 91.6%5th of 31 |
| 1st of 317–3 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 31 |
| 19th of 314–5 | Road vs home | 5–824th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.