Los Angeles Kings at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Vladislav GavrikovGoals1
- Kevin FialaAssists2
- Kevin FialaPoints2
Islanders- Anders LeeGoals2
- Noah DobsonAssists1
- Anders LeePoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:13Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Simon Holmstrom (3), Noah Dobson (19)2–3
- P315:49Anders Lee Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Mayfield (4), Bo Horvat (15)2–2
- P38:42Anders Lee Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Mike Reilly (3), Mathew Barzal (19)2–1
- P29:08Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (19), Phillip Danault (10)2–0
- P25:40Adrian Kempe Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (18), Drew Doughty (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:40Adrian Kempe Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (18), Drew Doughty (8)LA 1 – 0 NYI · LA 48% → 67% +19LA 48% → 67%+19 pts
- P29:08Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (19), Phillip Danault (10)LA 2 – 0 NYI · LA 68% → 83% +16LA 68% → 83%+16 pts
- P38:42Anders Lee Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Mike Reilly (3), Mathew Barzal (19)LA 2 – 1 NYI · NYI 5% → 21% +16NYI 5% → 21%+16 pts
- P315:49Anders Lee Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Mayfield (4), Bo Horvat (15)LA 2 – 2 NYI · NYI 9% → 51% +42NYI 9% → 51%+42 pts
- OT0:13Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Simon Holmstrom (3), Noah Dobson (19)LA 2 – 3 NYI · NYI 51% → 91% +40NYI 51% → 91%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 44%
- Fair odds
- NYI -112
- LA +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.0 – 3.2 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +24 | −13 | LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.60 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +44 Elo | LA 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 52.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 31 |
| 1st of 312.3 | Goals allowed | 3.421st of 31 |
| 1st of 31+1.5 | Margin | −0.322nd of 31 |
| 2nd of 3155.8% | Shot share | 44.7%30th of 31 |
| 4th of 3192.1% | Save percentage | 91.5%6th of 31 |
| 1st of 317–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 1st of 319–0 | Road vs home | 4–829th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.