New York Islanders at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Brock NelsonGoals2
- Noah DobsonAssists3
- Noah DobsonPoints3
Canadiens- Josh AndersonGoals2
- Justin BarronAssists2
- Josh AndersonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:40Christian Dvorak Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (17)3–5
- P314:06Bo Horvat Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (27), Alexander Romanov (5)3–4
- P33:43Brock Nelson Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (26)2–4
- P32:07Brock Nelson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (25)1–4
- P219:21Cole Caufield Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (16), Juraj Slafkovsky (6)0–4
- P219:06Josh Anderson Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Sean Monahan (10), Justin Barron (5)0–3
- P210:35Josh Anderson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Barron (4), Sean Monahan (9)0–2
- P27:45Joel Armia Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (6), Kaiden Guhle (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:45Joel Armia Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (6), Kaiden Guhle (7)NYI 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 56% → 74% +18MTL 56% → 74%+18 pts
- P210:35Josh Anderson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Barron (4), Sean Monahan (9)NYI 0 – 2 MTL · MTL 75% → 88% +13MTL 75% → 88%+13 pts
- P219:06Josh Anderson Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Sean Monahan (10), Justin Barron (5)NYI 0 – 3 MTL · MTL 91% → 98% +6MTL 91% → 98%+6 pts
- P33:43Brock Nelson Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (26)NYI 2 – 4 MTL · NYI 1% → 7% +5NYI 1% → 7%+5 pts
- P314:06Bo Horvat Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (27), Alexander Romanov (5)NYI 3 – 4 MTL · NYI <1% → 11% +10NYI <1% → 11%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 56%
- Fair odds
- MTL -141
- NYI +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.9 – 3.4 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NYI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +14 | +6 | NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +40 Elo | MTL 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 58.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.2 | Margin | −0.828th of 31 |
| 30th of 3145.4% | Shot share | 45.8%28th of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 90.5%14th of 31 |
| 5th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 14th of 316–6 | Road vs home | 6–1129th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.