Pittsburgh Penguins at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals2
- Erik KarlssonAssists2
- Sidney CrosbyPoints3
Canadiens- Jayden StrubleGoals1
- Jesse YlonenAssists1
- David SavardPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Jansen Harkins Goal Snap Shot4–3
- SO0:00Lars Eller Goal Snap Shot4–3
- SO0:00Sean Monahan Goal Snap Shot4–3
- SO0:00Sidney Crosby Goal Snap Shot4–3
- SO0:00Cole Caufield Goal Snap Shot4–3
- SO0:00Kris Letang Goal Snap Shot4–3
- SO0:00Nick Suzuki Goal Snap Shot4–3
- P211:02Sidney Crosby Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (15), Evgeni Malkin (14)3–3
- P25:36Jake Guentzel Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (14), Erik Karlsson (14)2–3
- P115:20Sean Monahan Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (15), Mike Matheson (15)1–3
- P113:48Sidney Crosby Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew O'Connor (6)1–2
- P112:21Jayden Struble Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Pezzetta (3), Jesse Ylönen (2)0–2
- P16:24David Savard Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:24David Savard Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: nonePIT 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 54% → 69% +15MTL 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P113:48Sidney Crosby Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew O'Connor (6)PIT 1 – 2 MTL · PIT 18% → 30% +13PIT 18% → 30%+13 pts
- P115:20Sean Monahan Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (15), Mike Matheson (15)PIT 1 – 3 MTL · MTL 70% → 83% +13MTL 70% → 83%+13 pts
- P25:36Jake Guentzel Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (14), Erik Karlsson (14)PIT 2 – 3 MTL · PIT 15% → 28% +14PIT 15% → 28%+14 pts
- P211:02Sidney Crosby Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (15), Evgeni Malkin (14)PIT 3 – 3 MTL · PIT 27% → 47% +20PIT 27% → 47%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 53%
- Fair odds
- MTL -120
- PIT +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +9 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +20 Elo | MTL 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.726th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.526th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.2 | Margin | −0.727th of 31 |
| 13th of 3151.1% | Shot share | 45.3%29th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3192.2% | Save percentage | 90.5%14th of 31 |
| 27th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 20th of 316–8 | Road vs home | 6–1028th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.