Anaheim Ducks at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Troy TerryGoals1
- Urho VaakanainenAssists1
- Troy TerryPoints1
Islanders- Casey CizikasGoals1
- Noah DobsonAssists2
- Noah DobsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:27Simon Holmstrom Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (9)3–4
- P37:46Mathew Barzal Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (16), Noah Dobson (24)3–3
- P35:07Sam Carrick Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–2
- P213:29Adam Henrique Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Urho Vaakanainen (5), Brett Leason (4)2–2
- P27:47Troy Terry Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (13), Leo Carlsson (6)1–2
- P26:32Casey Cizikas Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Cal Clutterbuck (6), Noah Dobson (23)0–2
- P20:40Kyle Palmieri Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (11), Hudson Fasching (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:40Kyle Palmieri Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (11), Hudson Fasching (4)ANA 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 55% → 72% +17NYI 55% → 72%+17 pts
- P213:29Adam Henrique Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Urho Vaakanainen (5), Brett Leason (4)ANA 2 – 2 NYI · ANA 26% → 46% +20ANA 26% → 46%+20 pts
- P35:07Sam Carrick Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: noneANA 3 – 2 NYI · ANA 47% → 74% +27ANA 47% → 74%+27 pts
- P37:46Mathew Barzal Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (16), Noah Dobson (24)ANA 3 – 3 NYI · NYI 23% → 53% +30NYI 23% → 53%+30 pts
- P318:27Simon Holmstrom Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (9)ANA 3 – 4 NYI · NYI 51% → 99% +48NYI 51% → 99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 60%
- Fair odds
- NYI -127
- ANA +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.3 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +14 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +71 Elo | NYI 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 31 |
| 25th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 31 |
| 29th of 31−0.8 | Margin | −0.220th of 31 |
| 24th of 3148.5% | Shot share | 44.7%30th of 31 |
| 21st of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 91.6%6th of 31 |
| 31st of 311–9 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 19th of 315–6 | Road vs home | 6–822nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.