Winnipeg Jets at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Nino NiederreiterGoals1
- Josh MorrisseyAssists2
- Josh MorrisseyPoints2
Ducks- Alex KillornGoals1
- Jakob SilfverbergAssists1
- Alex KillornPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:31Mark Scheifele Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (9)4–2
- P318:18Gabriel Vilardi Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Josh Morrissey (19), Dylan DeMelo (9)3–2
- P35:55Morgan Barron Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Josh Morrissey (18), David Gustafsson (1)2–2
- P31:58Nino Niederreiter Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (10), Brenden Dillon (4)1–2
- P31:15Adam Henrique Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Silfverberg (6), Radko Gudas (4)0–2
- P216:07Alex Killorn Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (10), Max Jones (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P216:07Alex Killorn Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (10), Max Jones (4)WPG 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 52% → 74% +21ANA 52% → 74%+21 pts
- P31:15Adam Henrique Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Silfverberg (6), Radko Gudas (4)WPG 0 – 2 ANA · ANA 76% → 91% +15ANA 76% → 91%+15 pts
- P31:58Nino Niederreiter Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (10), Brenden Dillon (4)WPG 1 – 2 ANA · WPG 8% → 24% +15WPG 8% → 24%+15 pts
- P35:55Morgan Barron Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Josh Morrissey (18), David Gustafsson (1)WPG 2 – 2 ANA · WPG 21% → 48% +27WPG 21% → 48%+27 pts
- P318:18Gabriel Vilardi Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Josh Morrissey (19), Dylan DeMelo (9)WPG 3 – 2 ANA · WPG 49% → 98% +49WPG 49% → 98%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 48%
- Fair odds
- ANA -116
- WPG +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 3.2 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +16 | +4 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.39 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +14 Elo | WPG 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 53.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 31 |
| 7th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.524th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.828th of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.4% | Shot share | 48.6%23rd of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 89.6%21st of 31 |
| 1st of 317–3 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Road vs home | 4–930th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.