Boston Bruins at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- James van RiemsdykGoals1
- Kevin ShattenkirkAssists2
- James van RiemsdykPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00David Pastrnak Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00
Simon Holmstrom Goal Backhand2–1 - SO0:00Charlie Coyle Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- P316:51Mason Lohrei Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–4
- P312:01Brock Nelson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (18), Mathew Barzal (22)3–4
- P310:48James van Riemsdyk Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Kevin Shattenkirk (6), David Pastrnak (24)3–3
- P35:06Bo Horvat Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (12), Mike Reilly (4)2–3
- P217:26David Pastrnak Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Shattenkirk (5), Morgan Geekie (6)2–2
- P214:45Morgan Geekie Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (13), Brad Marchand (14)1–2
- P213:26Simon Holmstrom Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (10)0–2
- P21:42Alexander Romanov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (21), Bo Horvat (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P217:26David Pastrnak Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Shattenkirk (5), Morgan Geekie (6)BOS 2 – 2 NYI · BOS 25% → 47% +22BOS 25% → 47%+22 pts
- P35:06Bo Horvat Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (12), Mike Reilly (4)BOS 2 – 3 NYI · NYI 52% → 78% +26NYI 52% → 78%+26 pts
- P310:48James van Riemsdyk Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Kevin Shattenkirk (6), David Pastrnak (24)BOS 3 – 3 NYI · BOS 17% → 48% +32BOS 17% → 48%+32 pts
- P312:01Brock Nelson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (18), Mathew Barzal (22)BOS 3 – 4 NYI · NYI 52% → 85% +34NYI 52% → 85%+34 pts
- P316:51Mason Lohrei Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBOS 4 – 4 NYI · BOS 5% → 49% +44BOS 5% → 49%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 51%
- Fair odds
- NYI -119
- BOS +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 3.2 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −8 | BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +8 Elo | NYI 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 3.319th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.7 | Margin | −0.120th of 31 |
| 17th of 3149.7% | Shot share | 45.1%30th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.5% | Save percentage | 91.5%6th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 8th of 318–6 | Road vs home | 7–820th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–0 NYI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.