Boston Bruins at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Morgan GeekieGoals1
- James van RiemsdykAssists1
- Morgan GeekiePoints1
Devils- Jack HughesGoals1
- Jesper BrattAssists1
- Jack HughesPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:47Jack Hughes Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (21), Vitek Vanecek (1)1–2
- P32:34Dawson Mercer Goal (7) Batted, assists: Erik Haula (7), Alexander Holtz (5)1–1
- P116:51Morgan Geekie Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (12), Danton Heinen (6)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:51Morgan Geekie Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (12), Danton Heinen (6)BOS 1 – 0 NJ · BOS 46% → 63% +17BOS 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P32:34Dawson Mercer Goal (7) Batted, assists: Erik Haula (7), Alexander Holtz (5)BOS 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 27% → 52% +26NJ 27% → 52%+26 pts
- OT2:47Jack Hughes Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (21), Vitek Vanecek (1)BOS 1 – 2 NJ · NJ 51% → 97% +46NJ 51% → 97%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 52%
- Fair odds
- NJ -119
- BOS +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 3.2 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +3 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · NJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +12 Elo | NJ 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.66th of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 3.630th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.8 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 17th of 3150.0% | Shot share | 51.9%9th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.5% | Save percentage | 88.8%30th of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 5th of 318–5 | Road vs home | 5–620th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.