New Jersey Devils at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Ondrej PalatGoals1
- Jesper BrattAssists1
- Ondrej PalatPoints1
Kraken- Tye KartyeGoals1
- Andre BurakovskyAssists1
- Tye KartyePoints1
Scoring summary
- P29:08Simon Nemec Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (19), Jonas Siegenthaler (6)2–1
- P27:12Tye Kartye Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Wennberg (8), Andre Burakovsky (3)1–1
- P117:14Ondrej Palat Goal (4) Deflected, assists: John Marino (10), Nico Hischier (5)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:14Ondrej Palat Goal (4) Deflected, assists: John Marino (10), Nico Hischier (5)NJ 1 – 0 SEA · NJ 46% → 63% +17NJ 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P27:12Tye Kartye Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Wennberg (8), Andre Burakovsky (3)NJ 1 – 1 SEA · SEA 34% → 53% +19SEA 34% → 53%+19 pts
- P29:08Simon Nemec Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (19), Jonas Siegenthaler (6)NJ 2 – 1 SEA · NJ 47% → 67% +20NJ 47% → 67%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 52%
- Fair odds
- SEA -119
- NJ +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.0 – 3.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −17 | −7 | NJ: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.43 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +12 Elo | SEA 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 31 |
| 30th of 313.8 | Goals allowed | 3.526th of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −0.829th of 31 |
| 6th of 3152.9% | Shot share | 50.8%14th of 31 |
| 30th of 3188.1% | Save percentage | 89.0%28th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 31 |
| 4th of 317–4 | Road vs home | 4–727th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.