New Jersey Devils at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Nico HischierGoals2
- Jesper BrattAssists1
- Nico HischierPoints2
Flames- Yegor SharangovichGoals1
- Ilya SolovyovAssists1
- Nazem KadriPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:22Nico Hischier Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: John Marino (11)4–2
- P314:46Nazem Kadri Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (11), Noah Hanifin (8)3–2
- P38:59Alexander Holtz Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: none3–1
- P212:31Jesper Bratt Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P23:28Nico Hischier Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (20), Luke Hughes (12)1–1
- P119:41Yegor Sharangovich Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Blake Coleman (9), Ilya Solovyov (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:41Yegor Sharangovich Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Blake Coleman (9), Ilya Solovyov (2)NJ 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 54% → 71% +17CGY 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P23:28Nico Hischier Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (20), Luke Hughes (12)NJ 1 – 1 CGY · NJ 29% → 46% +18NJ 29% → 46%+18 pts
- P212:31Jesper Bratt Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNJ 2 – 1 CGY · NJ 47% → 68% +21NJ 47% → 68%+21 pts
- P38:59Alexander Holtz Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: noneNJ 3 – 1 CGY · NJ 79% → 95% +16NJ 79% → 95%+16 pts
- P314:46Nazem Kadri Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (11), Noah Hanifin (8)NJ 3 – 2 CGY · CGY <1% → 12% +11CGY <1% → 12%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 54%
- Fair odds
- CGY -121
- NJ +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.0 – 3.3 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +9 | NJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +27 Elo | CGY 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.7 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 31 |
| 30th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 3.422nd of 31 |
| 18th of 310.0 | Margin | −0.524th of 31 |
| 10th of 3152.0% | Shot share | 52.4%6th of 31 |
| 29th of 3188.6% | Save percentage | 89.1%25th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 3rd of 318–4 | Road vs home | 6–616th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.