New Jersey Devils at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Jesper BrattGoals1
- Ondrej PalatAssists1
- Jesper BrattPoints1
Oilers- Connor McDavidGoals1
- Connor McDavidAssists1
- Evander KanePoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:52Evander Kane Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (26)1–4
- P34:53Jesper Bratt Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (6), Ondrej Palat (9)1–3
- P34:23Connor McDavid Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Evander Kane (10)0–3
- P214:20Evan Bouchard Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (21), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (19)0–2
- P118:36Derek Ryan Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Gagner (2), Brett Kulak (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:36Derek Ryan Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Gagner (2), Brett Kulak (2)NJ 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 58% → 74% +16EDM 58% → 74%+16 pts
- P214:20Evan Bouchard Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (21), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (19)NJ 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 76% → 90% +14EDM 76% → 90%+14 pts
- P34:23Connor McDavid Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Evander Kane (10)NJ 0 – 3 EDM · EDM 94% → 99% +5EDM 94% → 99%+5 pts
- P34:53Jesper Bratt Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (6), Ondrej Palat (9)NJ 1 – 3 EDM · NJ 1% → 6% +5NJ 1% → 6%+5 pts
- P316:52Evander Kane Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (26)NJ 1 – 4 EDM · EDM >99% → >99% +0EDM >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 58%
- Fair odds
- EDM -144
- NJ +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.9 – 3.4 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −8 | NJ: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +59 Elo | EDM 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 59.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 31 |
| 30th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.523rd of 31 |
| 16th of 310.0 | Margin | 0.016th of 31 |
| 10th of 3152.1% | Shot share | 54.1%4th of 31 |
| 29th of 3188.7% | Save percentage | 88.4%30th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 31 |
| 2nd of 319–4 | Road vs home | 6–514th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.