Minnesota Wild at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Matt BoldyGoals1
- Brock FaberAssists2
- Matt BoldyPoints2
Oilers- Evan BouchardGoals2
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsAssists4
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPoints4
Scoring summary
- P31:32Evan Bouchard Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (20), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (18)3–4
- P218:30Leon Draisaitl Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (17), Connor McDavid (25)3–3
- P211:58Connor Dewar Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (5), Brock Faber (11)3–2
- P21:21Connor McDavid Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (16), Evan Bouchard (20)2–2
- P20:41Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (9), Marcus Johansson (10)2–1
- P20:15Matt Boldy Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (10), Marcus Johansson (9)1–1
- P115:16Evan Bouchard Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (15), Zach Hyman (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:41Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (9), Marcus Johansson (10)MIN 2 – 1 EDM · MIN 42% → 60% +18MIN 42% → 60%+18 pts
- P21:21Connor McDavid Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (16), Evan Bouchard (20)MIN 2 – 2 EDM · EDM 40% → 58% +18EDM 40% → 58%+18 pts
- P211:58Connor Dewar Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (5), Brock Faber (11)MIN 3 – 2 EDM · MIN 43% → 64% +21MIN 43% → 64%+21 pts
- P218:30Leon Draisaitl Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (17), Connor McDavid (25)MIN 3 – 3 EDM · EDM 32% → 56% +24EDM 32% → 56%+24 pts
- P31:32Evan Bouchard Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (20), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (18)MIN 3 – 4 EDM · EDM 56% → 79% +23EDM 56% → 79%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 62%
- Fair odds
- EDM -149
- MIN +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.8 – 3.4 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +10 | MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +88 Elo | EDM 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 59.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 31 |
| 23rd of 31−0.4 | Margin | 0.016th of 31 |
| 13th of 3151.1% | Shot share | 53.6%5th of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.0% | Save percentage | 88.5%30th of 31 |
| 23rd of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 25th of 314–8 | Road vs home | 5–515th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–0 EDM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.