Edmonton Oilers at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals1
- Warren FoegeleAssists1
- Leon DraisaitlPoints1
Islanders- Simon HolmstromGoals1
- Jean-Gabriel PageauAssists1
- Anders LeePoints1
Scoring summary
- P214:10Simon Holmstrom Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (11)1–3
- P211:30Bo Horvat Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (13), Noah Dobson (28)1–2
- P22:39Anders Lee Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (10), Mathew Barzal (23)1–1
- P11:23Leon Draisaitl Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (7), Mattias Ekholm (7)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:23Leon Draisaitl Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (7), Mattias Ekholm (7)EDM 1 – 0 NYI · EDM 46% → 60% +15EDM 46% → 60%+15 pts
- P22:39Anders Lee Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (10), Mathew Barzal (23)EDM 1 – 1 NYI · NYI 35% → 53% +18NYI 35% → 53%+18 pts
- P211:30Bo Horvat Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (13), Noah Dobson (28)EDM 1 – 2 NYI · NYI 53% → 73% +20NYI 53% → 73%+20 pts
- P214:10Simon Holmstrom Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (11)EDM 1 – 3 NYI · NYI 74% → 88% +15NYI 74% → 88%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 52%
- Fair odds
- NYI -119
- EDM +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.0 – 3.3 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −11 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +14 Elo | NYI 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 31 |
| 25th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.423rd of 31 |
| 16th of 310.0 | Margin | −0.222nd of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.7% | Shot share | 45.4%30th of 31 |
| 30th of 3188.5% | Save percentage | 91.3%8th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 24th of 314–8 | Road vs home | 7–921st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
EDM 1–0 NYI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.