Tampa Bay Lightning at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Steven StamkosGoals4
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Steven StamkosPoints4
Oilers- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsGoals1
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsAssists2
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:53Steven Stamkos Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (30), Calvin de Haan (3)7–4
- P318:27Anthony Cirelli Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none6–4
- P317:38Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Evan Bouchard (24), Connor McDavid (29)5–4
- P314:02Steven Stamkos Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Sheary (4)5–3
- P312:47Nikita Kucherov Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (20), Mikhail Sergachev (17)4–3
- P36:48Steven Stamkos Goal (12) Batted, assists: Haydn Fleury (2), Conor Sheary (3)3–3
- P210:02Zach Hyman Goal (17) Deflected, assists: Evan Bouchard (23), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (21)2–3
- P27:20Connor McDavid Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: none2–2
- P21:23Darnell Nurse Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (20), Derek Ryan (4)2–1
- P17:17Tyler Motte Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Darren Raddysh (9), Michael Eyssimont (6)2–0
- P11:07Steven Stamkos Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Nicholas Paul (4), Nikita Kucherov (29)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:23Darnell Nurse Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (20), Derek Ryan (4)TB 2 – 1 EDM · EDM 21% → 37% +15EDM 21% → 37%+15 pts
- P27:20Connor McDavid Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: noneTB 2 – 2 EDM · EDM 35% → 54% +19EDM 35% → 54%+19 pts
- P210:02Zach Hyman Goal (17) Deflected, assists: Evan Bouchard (23), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (21)TB 2 – 3 EDM · EDM 54% → 73% +19EDM 54% → 73%+19 pts
- P36:48Steven Stamkos Goal (12) Batted, assists: Haydn Fleury (2), Conor Sheary (3)TB 3 – 3 EDM · TB 20% → 47% +27TB 20% → 47%+27 pts
- P312:47Nikita Kucherov Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (20), Mikhail Sergachev (17)TB 4 – 3 EDM · TB 48% → 84% +36TB 48% → 84%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 58%
- Fair odds
- EDM -126
- TB +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.3 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +12 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.30 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +59 Elo | EDM 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 31 |
| 28th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.318th of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.312th of 31 |
| 17th of 3149.9% | Shot share | 54.2%4th of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.1% | Save percentage | 88.9%30th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 25th of 315–10 | Road vs home | 8–510th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–0 EDM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.