Tampa Bay Lightning at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Brayden PointGoals1
- Mikhail SergachevAssists1
- Brayden PointPoints1
Canucks- Brock BoeserGoals3
- Quinn HughesAssists3
- Brock BoeserPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:42Brock Boeser Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (30)1–4
- P216:52Brock Boeser Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (29), Filip Hronek (25)1–3
- P29:29Brock Boeser Goal (19) Backhand, assists: J.T. Miller (27), Nils Hoglander (5)1–2
- P16:08Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (28), J.T. Miller (26)1–1
- P11:25Brayden Point Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (16), Brandon Hagel (17)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:25Brayden Point Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (16), Brandon Hagel (17)TB 1 – 0 VAN · TB 44% → 59% +15TB 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P16:08Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (28), J.T. Miller (26)TB 1 – 1 VAN · VAN 40% → 55% +15VAN 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P29:29Brock Boeser Goal (19) Backhand, assists: J.T. Miller (27), Nils Hoglander (5)TB 1 – 2 VAN · VAN 54% → 73% +19VAN 54% → 73%+19 pts
- P216:52Brock Boeser Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (29), Filip Hronek (25)TB 1 – 3 VAN · VAN 75% → 90% +15VAN 75% → 90%+15 pts
- P318:42Brock Boeser Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (30)TB 1 – 4 VAN · VAN >99% → >99% +0VAN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 58%
- Fair odds
- VAN -126
- TB +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.3 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | 0 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +59 Elo | VAN 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.81st of 31 |
| 27th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.65th of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.2 | Margin | +1.21st of 31 |
| 18th of 3149.6% | Shot share | 48.8%22nd of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.2% | Save percentage | 91.5%6th of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 23rd of 315–9 | Road vs home | 10–45th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–0 VAN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.