Tampa Bay Lightning at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals2
- Brandon HagelAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints3
Kraken- Jamie OleksiakGoals1
- Jordan EberleAssists2
- Jordan EberlePoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:12Nikita Kucherov Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (16), Darren Raddysh (8)4–3
- P37:09Nicholas Paul Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Anthony Cirelli (8), Nikita Kucherov (28)3–3
- P30:14Jared McCann Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (18), Jordan Eberle (11)2–3
- P212:23Jamie Oleksiak Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (10)2–2
- P29:52Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (12), Will Borgen (7)2–1
- P119:16Nikita Kucherov Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Brayden Point (19), Brandon Hagel (15)2–0
- P19:28Anthony Cirelli Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Nick Perbix (6), Tanner Jeannot (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:52Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (12), Will Borgen (7)TB 2 – 1 SEA · SEA 17% → 33% +16SEA 17% → 33%+16 pts
- P212:23Jamie Oleksiak Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (10)TB 2 – 2 SEA · SEA 32% → 53% +21SEA 32% → 53%+21 pts
- P30:14Jared McCann Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (18), Jordan Eberle (11)TB 2 – 3 SEA · SEA 52% → 76% +23SEA 52% → 76%+23 pts
- P37:09Nicholas Paul Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Anthony Cirelli (8), Nikita Kucherov (28)TB 3 – 3 SEA · TB 20% → 48% +28TB 20% → 48%+28 pts
- OT3:12Nikita Kucherov Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (16), Darren Raddysh (8)TB 4 – 3 SEA · TB 49% → 98% +49TB 49% → 98%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 49%
- Fair odds
- SEA -117
- TB +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −3 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +5 Elo | TB 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 31 |
| 29th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.2 | Margin | −0.830th of 31 |
| 18th of 3149.6% | Shot share | 51.5%11th of 31 |
| 25th of 3189.2% | Save percentage | 89.0%28th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 31 |
| 26th of 314–9 | Road vs home | 4–830th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 0–1 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.