Chicago Blackhawks at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals1
- Alex VlasicAssists1
- Connor BedardPoints1
Oilers- Sam GagnerGoals1
- Connor McDavidAssists2
- Sam GagnerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P30:43Zach Hyman Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Connor McDavid (28), Evan Bouchard (22)1–4
- P213:22Leon Draisaitl Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Cody Ceci (7), Sam Gagner (3)1–3
- P118:19Sam Gagner Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Derek Ryan (3)1–2
- P19:58Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (27), Evan Bouchard (21)1–1
- P13:21Connor Bedard Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (5), Louis Crevier (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:21Connor Bedard Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (5), Louis Crevier (2)CHI 1 – 0 EDM · CHI 44% → 59% +15CHI 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P19:58Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (27), Evan Bouchard (21)CHI 1 – 1 EDM · EDM 40% → 56% +16EDM 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P118:19Sam Gagner Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Derek Ryan (3)CHI 1 – 2 EDM · EDM 55% → 71% +16EDM 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P213:22Leon Draisaitl Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Cody Ceci (7), Sam Gagner (3)CHI 1 – 3 EDM · EDM 74% → 88% +14EDM 74% → 88%+14 pts
- P30:43Zach Hyman Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Connor McDavid (28), Evan Bouchard (22)CHI 1 – 4 EDM · EDM 92% → 98% +6EDM 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 60%
- Fair odds
- EDM -128
- CHI +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.9 – 3.3 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +9 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +74 Elo | EDM 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.423rd of 31 |
| 30th of 31−0.8 | Margin | +0.215th of 31 |
| 28th of 3145.5% | Shot share | 54.1%4th of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 88.7%30th of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 31 |
| 28th of 314–9 | Road vs home | 7–511th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.