Florida Panthers at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheGoals2
- Sam BennettAssists2
- Carter VerhaeghePoints3
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals1
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsAssists1
- Zach HymanPoints1
Scoring summary
- P30:21Carter Verhaeghe Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (16)5–1
- P216:01Sam Bennett Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Brandon Montour (3), Sergei Bobrovsky (1)4–1
- P28:08Zach Hyman Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (22), Connor McDavid (30)3–1
- P119:27Aleksander Barkov Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Sam Reinhart (21), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (9)3–0
- P118:58Brandon Montour Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (11), Sam Bennett (5)2–0
- P15:33Carter Verhaeghe Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (4), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:33Carter Verhaeghe Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (4), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (8)FLA 1 – 0 EDM · FLA 45% → 61% +15FLA 45% → 61%+15 pts
- P118:58Brandon Montour Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (11), Sam Bennett (5)FLA 2 – 0 EDM · FLA 63% → 78% +15FLA 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P119:27Aleksander Barkov Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Sam Reinhart (21), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (9)FLA 3 – 0 EDM · FLA 79% → 89% +11FLA 79% → 89%+11 pts
- P28:08Zach Hyman Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (22), Connor McDavid (30)FLA 3 – 1 EDM · EDM 8% → 18% +10EDM 8% → 18%+10 pts
- P216:01Sam Bennett Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Brandon Montour (3), Sergei Bobrovsky (1)FLA 4 – 1 EDM · FLA 86% → 95% +9FLA 86% → 95%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 54%
- Fair odds
- EDM -121
- FLA +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 3.3 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +3 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +26 Elo | EDM 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.67th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.422nd of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.114th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3155.6% | Shot share | 55.0%4th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.9% | Save percentage | 88.6%30th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 12th of 318–8 | Road vs home | 8–612th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
FLA 1–0 EDM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.